基于法官集体经验的量刑预测研究
白建军基于法官集体经验的量刑预测研究
Sentencing Prediction Research Based on Judges' Collective Experience
期刊名称：《法学研究》
期刊年份：
作者：白建军
单位：北京大学法学院
中文关键词：多情节组合;量刑确定性;量刑模型;量刑预测
英文关键词：multi-circumstance combination;determinacy of sentencing;sentencing model;prediction of sentencing
中文摘要：
各种法定量刑情节在具体个案中有各种可能的组合，但对于多情节案件如何量刑却无明确的法律规定，导致此类案件的量刑结果不确定。以十四万余交通肇事罪案件为样本，对其量刑进行确定性检验发现：通过限缩量刑情节的裁量幅度，可以将此类案件的量刑确定性由原来的30.5%提高到51.1%；在此基础上控制样本离散性程度，可以将量刑确定性由51.1%进一步提高到73.4%。据此建立的量刑模型可用于量刑预测，促进司法公正，提高审判管理水平。归纳法官的集体经验用以指导量刑实践，是提高量刑确定性的有效方法。
英文摘要：
The fact that there are numerous possible combinations of various kinds of legal sentencing circumstances in one specific case, but no clear regulation on sentencing in multi-circumstance cases has led to the uncertainty of sentencing in these cases. This author takes 140,000 traffic accident cases as sample and carries out deterministic test on them. The results show that the degree of determinacy of sentencing can be increased from 30.5% to 51.1% by controlling the scope of legal sentencing circumstances. On the basis of controlling the scope, the degree of determinacy can be further increased from 51.1% to 73.4% by controlling the degree of sample discretization. This sentencing model can be used to predict the sentencing of individual cases, and to push forward the realization of judicial justice. In this process, judges are not the objects to be pushed, but the main body of collective experience that promote judicial justice by complementing and learning from each other. This sentencing model can also provide a new means and basis for the superior court or the parties concerned to carry out legal supervision over the sentencing quality of courts at all levels. This study shows that the use of judges' collective experience to guide sentencing is the basic guarantee for improving the determinacy of sentencing. Paying close attention to judges' collective experience means using experience to calibrate experience, using discretion to regulate discretion, and using independent trial to restrict independent trial.
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